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- #132 – Private Equity & Risk
#132 – Private Equity & Risk
Quote, Podcast, Mental Model, Article, Tweet.
Dimitri Gremos
December 03, 2025
Good morning everyone,
Hope you’re having a great week!
Let’s jump in.
read online on my website
read time 3 minutes
#132 at a Glance:
Quote: Methods and principles.
Podcast: 15 minutes with Tim Helyar.
Mental Model: The best types of risks to take.
Article: The private equity/credit bubble and its implications.
Tweet: Proof of action.
Quote I’ve been thinking about:
“As to methods, there may be a million and then some, but principles are few. The person who grasps principles can successfully select their own methods. The person who tries methods, ignoring principles, is sure to have trouble.”
Podcast I listened to:
AFR’s 15 Minutes with The Boss: Tim Helyar
Tim Helyar is the country head for US-based investment firm State Street in Australia.
This was a really insightful chat and definitely one of the better 15 Minutes with The Boss interviews.
My favourite takeaway;
“A good decision on Monday is better than a perfect decision on Friday.”
Those who make a “good” decision on Monday have an entire weeks’ worth of work ahead of those who make a “perfect” decision on Friday – which may ultimately lead to the same outcome.
Prioritise speed and action over perfection.
Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.
[Duration: 18 minutes]
Mental Model I’ve been thinking about:
The Best Types of Risks to Take
"The best type of risks to take are ones where (1) the worst outcome is manageable and (2) the best outcome is life-changing.
Think: Asking someone on a date. Or, investing an amount of money you can afford to lose into a business with high upside.
Look for opportunities where it won't kill you if it goes poorly, but you'd be blown away if it goes well."
(h/t – James Clear)
Article I read:
Private Equity/Credit: The Bubble and Its Implications
A quite compelling take on the existence of a Private Equity/Credit bubble…
This one was quite a lengthy read, but man, was it worth it.
Really made me think critically about the future of the PE and PC industries.
Lyall Taylor’s perspective essentially boils down to this:
Private equity and private credit are currently in a large, structurally fragile bubble, driven by mispriced risk, excessive leverage, inflated valuations, weak transparency, and distorted performance reporting.
While PE delivered genuinely strong returns in the 1980–2000 period due to cheap assets, limited competition, falling interest rates, and real governance improvements, those conditions no longer exist. Instead, since roughly 2010 (and especially after 2022) PE has underperformed public equities, despite an unusually favourable macro backdrop for leveraged assets.
Well worth the read for anyone interested in markets, finance, or business more broadly.
Read the full article here.
Tweet I liked:
Proof of Action
Thanks for reading! Grateful for your support.
Stay hungry, stay humble, stay curious. ⚡
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See you in the next one,
Dimi